edit: I mistakenly assumed the HN would the understand the regex of "[hf]odl" was just a clever way of saying hodl/fodl. No need for more comments explaining those terms.
If there was an algorithm so good that it could influence the market, then the market would self correct and the algorithm proven useless.
...but the "hodlometer.com" domain was registered 3 days ago.
It's trivial to develop an algorithm by cherry-picking parameters that will give any desired results for historical data.
But there's vast research on how it's impossible to predict/beat the market like this in reality [1], and this site is obviously designed to prey on the uneducated and naive.
[1] For a good intro, see chapter 5 of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" which talks about "technical analysis", which is exactly what HODLometer is doing -- https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393352242
Once you go past the patterns that everyone can plainly see, you are looking for patterns in what appears to be noise to everyone else. Accurate future predictions is really the only way to tell if it is anything other than staring at tea leaves.
How would you suggest entering short term trade scenarios then?
I sound snarky, but I'm genuinely curious what you suggest instead.
I can see though how it looks untrustworthy because of that, thanks for feedback!
If you want to cherry pick a point to "disprove" HODL, just look at the fact that in November 2013 Bitcoin traded at an eye-watering $950+, and then for 2.5 years beat a steady retreat to $400.
At this point, bitcoin can taper down to $3K in value till 2020 and we would not have seen anything new in terms of relative price movement over a fix timespan.
For those who have watched bitcoin for a while, 2018 is just 2014 all over again, except this time a lot more people are paying attention.
Meanwhile, if its boosters can actually keep it in the news, build things with it, and use it as a currency, demand for it in the long run will continue going up. This is the other unspoken assumption of HODLing, unspoken because most people don't want it explicitly known that they're hyping & propagandizing, but pretty apparent in their actions. This is also not true in the short run; hype cycles like what we saw in Dec 2017 are impossible to sustain forever, which is why the price today is significantly lower than it was then, which is why HODLing only works on long (5-10 year) timespans rather than short ones.
Reduced supply + increased demand = higher price.
Backtested returns are not reliable.
Algorithm have been found on TradingView, and tested among many.
Cryptocurrencies are especially volatile that's why I thought I would need to use ATR. I have also been playing with trailing stop and take profits, so found this algorithm to combine the two.
The parameters have been manually tested, but it would make sense to make run a simulation to get the best parameters for a coin.
The whole site was created in about 6 hours, so don't judge too hard.
USDT? I don't think that is a good advice. Maybe a better one will be to sell BTC in exchange for a HODL coin instead?
