Another possible theory is that the site has a weakness and has been breached but they are just not aware of it. At this point it's a bit too early too tell though.
I encourage other people to test this on their end as well. It's actually very easy to do, spin up a vm image in the cloud, throw some test creds and see who falls for the bait. I keep a simple spreadsheet with unique usernames in one column and the service I stored those honeypot accounts in the next column. If one of those are accessed then I know for certain which services not to trust.