Ask HN: how do you decide when to quit, stick or pivot

You should change your idea when you (a) have new one you're convinced is better, and (b) it won't cost too much to switch to it (e.g. because it overlaps a lot with your current idea).

Harder to say when to quit. I suppose you quit when you can't take it anymore. Which means deciding that depends less on the product than on you.

I feel for you... There's the general problem of when to call it quits and then there's your particular startup.

I would have to say that in my opinion working in the music industry is a tar pit. (I used to work at a major label) Because of the legal issues surrounding copyright law, the upsides are limited. In the case where you are successful, you will usually get shut down by either one of the labels, all of the labels and/or RIAA. Look at Muxtape if you want an example.

I usually use the analogy of a concert... you want to be close to the stage and you see an area really close that's free so you start making your way over there. Once you get there you see there's something wrong with it. Either it's behind a pillar or there's people sitting on the ground there, or someone's puked there.

This happens to music startups all the time. They see the need in the market and they go to fill it in, but the lawyers have puked all over the ground there.

For me it's a 3 step process.

1. Make it, release it, drive 2,000 hits to the site, see conversions. If there are 0 conversions, then the idea is probably crap. If not, I try to optimize and drive another 2,000 hits to it.

2. If I get down to 1:200...then it's probably a good idea. The next step is to see if there is scale. A product that converts at 1:7 is not viable if the entire possible traffic is only 70 a month.

3. If I get a product that a) converts and b) has a lot of potential traffic, the next step is to see competition. If each click costs $5 and the first page of Google results for the relevant keywords is filled with high ranking websites...then I look at the profit margin to make sure I can afford to compete.

Essentially this makes sure that the product can be both profitable and has scale.

If there is low competition but no scale...it might still be a viable side project. Low competition = very easy to get to top of Google...so it might still be good for an extra $1-2K/mo with only a few hours spent a month on maintenance.

I have to admit, I have been going on for years and years because I can see that it will work, no matter how much I hate it at a particular moment. I can't claim that this is the best approach, or even a good one, but that's what I'm doing: not quitting. I guess it's not really a decision. In the past, a free competitor caused me to quit - but that was a mistake, because mine was still valued, so I unquit that project (but I was uninspired, so I focussed on the next one - I guess inspiration is another factor).

You need information to make these decisions. I like Steve Blank's idea that your startup is a process for finding answers to questions, like here's my idea, I think these people will need it - do they? Try to get this information as early as possible - before version 1.0, before version 0.1, before any version, before any planning or design. Some questions will require a version 0.1 to find the answer.

So, try to formulate the specific questions, that if you had factual answers to them, it would be obvious to you whether to stick/pivot/quit. Then work at obtaining those facts (instead of at "keep pushing forward".) Some of them, by their nature, might take a long time or a lot of work to obtain; but because they are concrete, specific and factual, it's easier for you to decide whether it's worth finding the answer or not. Or, just by thinking in these terms, a brilliant short-cut for getting this information might come to you. [Note: I haven't actually talked to customers, which his approach says to; but I have researched my questions in other ways, which was very revealing.]

Some startups also have engineering questions, is this technologically feasible, can I get this to work? A similar approach applies, where you try to solve the bare essence of the problem first; customers can't tell you about this aspect. [Note: I do this all the time; unfortunately the basic "is it usable?" question can require a substantial prototype - a lot of work]

Did the people who have achieved the success you expect do more or less work than you've done ?

"I expected at least 20 sign ups by now", "I expected at least 100 visits a day by now", "I expected at least $1000 a month by now".

Try and find out what other people had to do to get to those milestones, if you have done a lot less then perhaps you should push on, if you've done a lot more, maybe your on the wrong track.

A rough heuristic but better than gut feel, perhaps.

I would honestly look at your idea from a strategic and straight business perspective. Can you create something or have the secret sauce that is defensible and hard to copy from competitors? If your isound.com provides something that is a great product market fit and a secret sauce that is defensible I would stick with the product. But make sure the business is covered in terms of there is a real need and people are willing to pay for it. Distribution is very important. Most internet companies fail because of lack of distribution and people just don't know you exist. So if you have a killer product, business fundamentals look good, and you just need to put more effort in marketing and distribution then I would totally continue.

2. Pivot is a hard question because you need to know your customer. I would say totally question and understand what the customers need is and if your product meets well and do the same thing with information that you gathered that tells you that you shohuld pivot it. Basically question your product market fit and information that you have to prove it. Ask why 5 times in row.

Taking this decision depends on the context of the question. Do you have customers/revenue? What is the feedback you received so far? How does your P&L statement look like? :)

My take on this:

I stick if I have "some" customers/revenue and "some" positive feedback.

Pivot should be influenced by feedback (if I have any) and by the experience of the market (again, if I have any), provided costs can be sustained.

Quit if I accomplished nothing yet and there are little chances to make any revenue/profit in an established time frame. It's hard to give up on stuff you built and invested in and it gets harder the more you invest.

PS: I have my own company for some (5) years now and I have seen good and bad times.

I got over a dip - about 10 minutes ago. For the last 2 months I had what seemed like an unsurmountable technical problem. Well, it was surmountable but I really didn't believe in the business enough to go through all the steps to fix the problem. Well after an expresso this morning I just solved it and now I feel like I can take on the world - I don't really care if the business idea is that good anymore because, by fixing this problem, I feel I have something valuable.

If you've been working on something for 6 years you've definitely got something valuable. I recommend that you don't quit.