"We hoped for flying cars, but what we got was 140 characters"
(or something similar, I don't remember it verbatim)
Every time I think about Tesla, I am reminded of the thousands of brilliant engineers toiling away in Silicon Valley trying to optimize online advertising. Maybe we could be a bit more closer to Fusion energy, maybe we could be a bit more closer to lesser carbon footprints. That small bit really is crucial, especially when we are fighting a losing battle with mother earth. Perhaps the world has too much information. When information flow is cheap, the cost of propaganda is low enough to create legitimate confusion. Imagine a world without Google, FB or Twitter, perhaps there would be concerted efforts by governments towards educating the masses about global warming. Perhaps such efforts could not be subverted by foreign governments or fringe groups. Looking back, the true value addition by SV will be companies like Tesla, Solar City & SpaceX.
Here is a guy who is scarily close to being a real-life Iron Man, doing something that has shown verifiable results and actually progresses humanity far more than FB/Twitter and to some extent Google.
But all I feel is constant negativity. I really feel sorry for Musk. I sincerely admire him for what he is struggling for and I really wish he'd get more support.
Note : I do understand his background and that the seed money for SpaceX was from paypal and all, but even then, paypal was a different business than just online ads.
He makes crazy "moonshots", he has a vision and doesn't tone it down nearly as much as others do, and he's not afraid to be "wrong".
The SpaceX community has a running joke about "elon time" being set to mars time, because his predictions and goals are almost always late (and are often under delivering), but I honestly respect that. Him and his companies aren't taking the "easy way out" of making easily achievable goals and then making them again and again. They are shooting for unlikely and in some cases almost impossible goals, and getting 70-90% of the way there, and they aren't exactly ashamed of it. IIRC there was a reddit thread a while back that was "bashing" Elon and Tesla and SpaceX about only hitting something like 70% of the goals they set, but I read it differently. They set out to revolutionize 3 different industries (cars, space, and now "boring" and public transport), and even if they can only get to "70% revolutionized", it's still a massive win in my opinion!
He's not perfect, I hear lots of bad things from many employees about the work environment, but overall I really respect the man and the companies he has created, and I think he has and will continue to do a lot for humanity.
I really wish there is stronger support for him against these sorts of people. How can he be all talk when we see his rockets going up and coming back down.
I mean sentiments like that. It's just right in the feels ya know? It's a reason to go even read the news in the morning.
Musk arguably does significantly more talking than doing, but his goals are lofty enough that even failing to make it halfway still means significant advancement.
There used to be a time where American people were different in that regard. Celebrating success, entrepreneurs, daring mavericks, etc.
Now all I see is jealousy, smirk, poo-pooing. Have you guys turned French?
This is not a fringe philosophical concept bound to popular novel's either. Look to the background of villains in mainstream super hero movies, to our politics (many call Trump the first Postmodern president), and the drive to be "authentic" in every aspect of the self for reasons of self promotion in some kind recursive cynical loop which other view as a perfect specimen of our contemporary irony, nearly perfected!
I'm not an expert on French culture or any culture per-se, but perhaps Americans (of which I'm one) do have a more superficial embrace of sentimentalism and a less critical approach to hero worship and "getting rich" and maybe it isn't driven by cynicism as much as naiveté but that's only one aspect of the culture as a whole. Even still, I'd argue most people are driven by the Postmodern philosophy wether they know it or not; are more cynical then they even know and skeptical of our institutions (universities, churches, etc) on one side or another.
Sounds like HN: "Check out my cool new web app/hardware gizmo!" Army of critics arrive to poop on it
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7885128
Nothing has changed.
To quote 'natural219 from what I just linked, the words I 100% support:
"Godspeed, Musk. (...) I'm behind you 100%. I just hope you can finish your work before our shitty, myopic, destructive society tears you down. Here's to faith."
I am sure situation is same for SpaceX too.
And then the whole SolarCity acquisition which didn't go down well.
That said, yes you have to hand it to Musk. Even if these companies go belly up, they have brought in lot of new technology.
The situation for SpaceX is different. SpaceX got 18 successful launches last year, several of them with reused rockets and most of them recovered afterward (no unsuccessful landing attempts, though a few were intentionally expended for performance reasons).
Their only real domestic competitor ULA which launches Atlas and Delta, long held as the giants in American space launch, only had a total of 8 launches, all expended of course.
Not only does SpaceX have a huge technological moat in the form of operational space launch reuse, but operationally their Falcon 9 (which had complete success in 2017) is out-launching everything else, including both the Chinese DF-5 (which had a failure) and the Russian R7/Soyuz (which also had a failure).
And their future products build tremendously on this already sizable lead:
1) Falcon Heavy, completed pad fit checks by the end of the year and now getting ready for a static fire and launch in a couple weeks, is even MORE reusable (3 cores recovered, counting for 27 out of 28 of the engines) and MORE powerful than any other rocket launching today. Dragon Crew also nearing completion and will be the first (of 3 total vehicles nearing completion) to return Americans to orbit on a domestic vehicle, likely this year.
2) A satellite constellation which is readying satellite prototype launch in the next month or two, has the potential of making SpaceX a telecomm giant. The scale of this constellation would not be feasible without the reusability tech they've developed.
3) And BFR, which will further cement their space launch tech moat, make launching the full version of the potentially-extremely-profitable satellite constellation WAY cheaper, and potentially open several new markets.
SpaceX is like Tesla after a full ramp-up of the Model 3 selling as many cars as Toyota does but in a world where no one else has an electric car for sale. So understandably (for Musk), he's leveraging this position to make things like BFR a reality.
Both companies are in extremely good positions compared to 2008 when both companies nearly went under. SpaceX in particular. And given the fact that Elon was able to save both, it means a market down-turn is something he has seen before and he has some powerful strings to pull in case the market has some major problems.
The negativity is so bad, his car company is worth more than Ford, with a minuscule fraction of the sales.
Elon will be just fine.
And it might sound callous but plenty of companies have similar practices (and are not creating anything of earth-shattering value), so judging Tesla more than the others is a bit unfair.
But it pales in comparison to the watershed moment SpaceX and the entire spaceflight community will have. There is a real possibility for 28 launches, including two Falcon Heavy's. NASA TESS on track to discover an explosion in habitable zone exoplanets. Vector, Electron, TechShot and other private space data leading a push for commercial apps in space, including pharma, stem cells and materials foundries. And there is decent chance of someone landing on the moon for the first time in 45 years ;)
Will we Go Back to the Moon in 2018?
https://audioboom.com/posts/6573043-dec-29-2017-will-we-go-b...
69TH International Astronautical Congress Bremen 1-5 OCT 2018
Not a factor. Until we can travel many multiples faster than light, it doesn't matter how many things we can see far, far away.
You and I will both be centuries dead before that happens.
We must live on different planets, because I can't go a single day without hearing about some product they may or may not build at some point in the future. This is one of the most hyped up companies I've ever seen (mostly deservedly).
>Here is a guy who is scarily close to being a real-life Iron Man
Really? Scary close? I'd say not remotely close.
>I really feel sorry for Musk.
Really?
>Looking back, the true value addition by SV will be companies like Tesla, Solar City & SpaceX
SpaceX for sure. Tesla, maybe. SolarCity? What did they do except destroy a bunch of investor's money?
Edit: Downvoted before I could even fix a typo. This place is embarrassing to read sometimes..."Real life Iron Man", "feel sorry for Elon Musk".
I do feel that his critics often lose perspective. for instance he gets a lot of heat for not ramping up M3 production as fast as promised but in the grand scheme of things I fail to see what impact that has whether EVs ramp up to a million cars a year a few quarters earlier or later. only thing that matters is tesla/spacex/etc lives to fight another day.
That said I would never invest my money in tesla stock. Its simply because I dont think its His ultimate goal to make money & that will always reflect in the decisions he make.
The man wants his car designs to evoke an image of being sexy and you consider him a creep? That's a way over-dramatic interpretation.
>informal exciting; appealing. "I've climbed most of the really sexy west coast mountains" synonyms: exciting, stimulating, interesting, appealing, intriguing, slick, red-hot "a sexy sales promotion"
(Also, is there a model Y in the works?)
The vehicles are sexy... to me at least.
It only gives ammunition to the chauvinists claiming that sex will be outlawed, or the idiots calling for politicians to resign for having sex out of wedlock.
The performance curve - the instant power at any point is addicting. The seats were comfortable, and the trunk space was ample.
The build quality, at least on the unit I saw is _better_ then the S or the X right now. This is primarily due to the simplification of the assembly compared to the S and the X. Honestly, having driven both, I would buy a 3 before buying a S. The only killer feature I see missing is the air suspension, and we know that is coming for the 3.
They are going to sell a million of the 3s.
For the record, I’m not a EV or a green evangelist. I don’t have a snarky license plate, or solar on my roof. But I will be picking one of these up. It’s perfect for my use cases. People will compare it with the Bolt, but people forget that SUperchargers are Tesla only right now. Want to get from LA to NY? Easy in Tesla. With a Bolt, there are places that you just can’t go.
It looks like (judging by VIN allocations, which is not a great method, but also by drone videos) that Tesla hit 1k a week the last week or two of December. Assuming no huge bottlenecks remaining, that takes them solidly half way up their ramp, with one more huge jump - to 3-5k a week - remaining.
To be fair, you can charge any EV fairly quickly at any campground with 220V RV hookups. With adequate planning, I think you could drive a Bolt anywhere.
ChaDeMo could still catch up with the right gumption (the rest of the auto manufacturers teaming up, for instance), and there's still a lot of talk about how the two "standards" are easily interoperable with simple adapters (and Tesla has a Tesla-to-ChaDeMo adapter, but so far as I'm aware no one has yet to negotiate for a ChaDeMo-to-Tesla adapter to be sold; Tesla is in a position of strength for now so hard to blame Tesla on hedging that position a bit in the US).
At least it looks like the different "winners" in the US versus Europe might keep the game competitive in the current term.
This just isn't true, check plugshare.com. It is now possible to drive cross-country in any EV with fast charging.
Super chargers are available in all of those states, making any cross country driving in that area significantly faster and easier.
Add in winter conditions and driving at the usual ~75MPH and it gets worse than that. I wouldn't attempt any trip longer than ~200 miles in anything but a Tesla because even the superchargers at 130kW make it just ~bearable once the supercharger novelty wears off.
Tesla needs to announce them far in advance so they get funding. They can’t just create another Model, start mass production and delivery without anyone noticing and caring to post it online. So they capitalize on the hype and sell as man as they can.
Furthermore there is no Tesla Model 3 from any other company. There is not even a Model S or X from any company. There are some products that are close but lack some desirable features such as being purely electric or being “techy”. For the Model X there is the Volvo XC 90 plug-in with 19 miles of range which wouldn’t get many people to work in the winter. The screen is a bit Tesla like but from what I have heard is that Tesla’s screen (and infotainment system) is much better.
For the Model 3, the only true competitors are the i3 and Chevy Bolt. The i3 is selling ok but does not have a lot of range and is a small vehicle. For its price, it is not really a good deal unless you are looking for any ev. The Bolt is a much better choice but many do not like its style. It is also not really available because it is often seen as a complicance vehicle. I have heard that people were laughed out of the store when they wanted to buy it. It is also not available in Norway where it is anticipated the most. My guess is that the 2018 Nissan Leaf will be the best choice this year but compared to a Model 3 still a compromise because it lacks (amongst all non Tesla) a proper quick charging network.
So the real question should be: when will the other manufactures start delivering?
More like the Chevy Bolt / Opel Ampera e, the i3 has very limited range while the Chevy/Opel offers between 300 and 500km of range thanks to its much bigger 60kWh battery. The BMW i3 only has a 33kWh battery in the newer version, previous one was even less than that... The Leaf 2018 goes in the right direction, but 40kWh is still no enough to do 3h+ road trips.
Also, you make a very good point by saying that the Chevy Bolt/Opel Ampera E is a much better choice (ignoring the design). Same pricing as the Model 3 but the range seems much better. Given the experience of Chevy, I think that they can reduce the price and mass produce the Bolt much faster than Tesla can do with the model 3.
The Nissan Leaf isn't new in 2018, it's been around since 2011 and is (I think) still the most popular pure electric car. I'm aware that the 2018 should have some significant improvements, but I'm confused why you don't count either the current models or the 2018 as a competitor to the Model 3?
"The two completed the cross-country drive in 50 hours and 16 minutes, setting a new electric Cannonball Run record."
That's not quite the same as the headline...
It looks like petrol cars have done it in under 27 hours
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2015/03/ny-la-26-hours-28-m...
Sorry if it's the latter..
Also, there is the suitability of the car, I imagine a Tesla would be better than Rolls Royce luxury if you need to be in the thing for 50 hours.
Stock cars with speed limits may not sound like fun but it would be accessible. Maybe the 'golf ball run' where you have to take a set of golf clubs across the country to tee off into both oceans in record time could be the notional goal of such an event. It would also give an excuse for some faux golfing style in the fashion department.
Incidentally, in 1933 the petrol record was around today's EV time.
With pretty insane modding though. The previous record (in 28:50) was done by "just" adding fuel tanks in the trunk and laser jammers: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/31/us/new-york-los-angeles-ca...
Elon Musk has already succeeded big big time.
Same goes for SpaceX, if other's say that some competitor is going to beat SpaceX at its price or booster reuse. Well, again, that's the whole point - to make humans multi-planetry species, not to be a billionaire.
Charging time is what make petrol win. Drive 500 miles, take 5mn to charge up and you're good for 500 more miles.
Until EV can do this (surely through charging stations like petrol cars) they won't good at anything more than daily commute if you can plug your car at at home and at work.
So battery technology is where the interest should be. We already know how to make efficient electric motors, we know how to make small vehicles. All wee need is fast charging energy stores. All some kind of electrical rails available on highways EV could use. Maybe setup specific separated lanes with no speed limit, EV rail but only if using some autonav which responds to the highway command to optimize the flow. Yes, you'd get something like trains for individuals.
9 hours is (in my opinion) the max amount of driving you can seriously do without at least a couple hours of resting.
That'd be about 540 miles total, maybe a bit less if you could make those 30 minutes of rest stops at a fast charger.
Right now, EV's are clearly the future. I'd say that when they have a 500 mile range with an MSRP that matches ICE vehicles, they'll go from being "exciting new technology" to "the obvious choice for most people."
Hopefully Tesla would start leasing car batteries so we could drive over a ramp and get our depleted battery replaced by a fully charged one in minutes and drive off for another 300+ miles.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/2/16842816/tesla-model-3-la-...
The relevant quote reads:
Not only did the time best what Roy and a team did in 2016 when they did the run using a Model S and Autopilot by about 5 hours, but it also beat a record set just last summer by friends Jordan Hart and Bradly D'Souza in a Model S 85D by more than an hour.
("Roy" refers to Alex Roy, editor-at-large for the Drive, who was on the trip.)
But waiting might not be an option if you want to be the first!
It's an awesome record for Model 3 that has only 310 mile range which is less than Model S with 335 mile range!