undefined | Better HN

0 pointssdiepend8y ago0 comments

And what did it say about the "absolute max" only a few months ago?

0 comments

I think geezerjay meant it as a literal statement of past values rather than speculation on a future price.

The absolute maximum value that bitcoin has ever traded at publicly is (I believe) just under $20k USD. His point is that no rational investor would bet the farm on a 3x increase on anything regardless of past values.

This is the reason why advertised investments need to include a disclaimer stating that past returns are not an indicator of future success.

That all being said - I don't think a bet like this requires someone to be masking a cashout. Not everything has to be a conspiracy. It's far more likely someone is caught up in the hysteria and genuinely believes that Bitcoin will hit that value (which it might, I don't have a crystal ball).

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes

PeterisP8y ago

Don't pretty much all VC investors bet that the particular company is going to get a 3x+ increase in value?

Expecting something like that is a sign of a speculative and risky investment, but there are quite a few asset types that have such expected returns if the result is the returns instead of a bust.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse