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0 pointsRetric15y ago0 comments

Above the rate for the year 1960, but not the rate for the decade 1960's. Still, 5.1 vs. 5.4 for such a rare and random event is not particularly meaningful. Also you need to adjust the numbers to compare the same thing. EX: If you compare manslaughter between 1961 and now a similar drunk driving accident would have a different outcome.

PS: I work with these numbers all the time. Murder is for lack of a better term the least reactive crime type, compared to say assault it far less influence by things like age, education, and gender etc.

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anamax15y ago· 2 in thread

> Above the rate for the year 1960, but not the rate for the decade 1960's.

My point is that the rates were changing so much during the 60s and 70s that speaking of averages loses too much information. 1960 and 1969 were very different as far as violence in the US is concerned.

> 5.1 vs. 5.4 for such a rare and random event is not particularly meaningful.

It's frequent enough to be statistically significant. We're not talking about the difference between 1 and 2 incidents in a population of 1M, we're talking about 10k incidents in a population of 180M.

The advantage of talking about murder (which includes manslaughter) as opposed to rape and drunk driving is that reporting isn't a big problem - the only argument is over the circumstance of death.

RetricOP15y ago

Do you really think the probability of someone that caused a fatal accident with a low BAC being charged with manslaughter was the same in 1960 and 2005?

As to being significant looking at different crime rates you tend to see similar trends but the "peak" year is often different. You can try to interpret it to mean something, but the reality is your looking at an imprecise estimate of an imprecise estimates of a highly random event it's really vary random after the first digit.

  1991 Forcible rape 106,593 
  1992 Forcible rape 109,062
  1991 Robbery 687,732
  1992 Robbery 672,478

Now look at which crimes rates up vs down from 1992 to 1993 etc.

anamax15y ago

> but the reality is your looking at an imprecise estimate of an imprecise estimates of a highly random event it's really vary random after the first digit.

Your assertion would be more convincing if your anecdote was had variance in the second position. Instead, it has variance in the third position (1065 and 1090) and less than half a unit in the second position (6877 and 6725)

The murder/manslaughter numbers are varying by 4-6x as much. (5.1 to 5.3/5.4)

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