I don't know that it's quite that simple; for one, tuition dominates college cost discussions while actual costs consist in large part of living expenses, i.e. room, board, food, misc. Second, there are some impressively expensive state schools out there, and not all have especially affordable in-state tuition, particularly not to those of working class background.
Still, I agree with the general idea you're reaching for. The ostensible premium of elite private schools isn't worth going into crippling debt for in most cases I can envisage.
