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0 pointsknownothing8y ago0 comments

> As long as you don't buy in at one of the speculative bubbles

I'm not so sure about that. You could have bought BTC anytime before the past week or so and it would have appreciated significantly, regardless of whether you bought it in a peak or trough. It's just a question of magnitude. E.g. if you bought 1 BTC at the lowest or highest price in 2015 you would still have outrageous returns on it today.

This is not to say it will continue being the case going forward but it's crazy to look back at.

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krrrh8y ago

Let’s see how everyone feels after the next correction. The headlines today seem to change every time I load google news. Up 10%, down 20%. There’s no way to know where it will go from here.

heurist8y ago

I had bought about $50 worth of BTC a year ago and it's now worth $800. Did the bitcoin economy grow that much in the last year? I've heard of increasing adoption by banks and governments but I don't know to what extent they're investing. I don't follow it closely and at this valuation, I have no idea whether it's a good investment or not. Should I sell it now before the inevitable crash? Should I buy more? I don't trust myself to understand this kind of speculation yet.

ChrisRazzzz8y ago

Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? If you cant answer that then I caution purchasing more. I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" is vs what speculating\gambling is.

This is gambling.

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knownothingOP8y ago

Yes. But I already stated that in my response. We do not know the future and you shouldn't trust anyone who tells you differently.

My point is that there have been skeptics and people saying it's a bubble or too volatile for nearly all of Bitcoin's history. But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter).

goodside8y ago

> But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter).

This isn't entirely true. If you bought Bitcoin anywhere near the height of the late-2013 mania (which is of course a lot of people, since that's why the price was so high), you lost half your value within a month or two and then had to hold until 2017 before you started to break even. You lost 70% if you held for a year and a half and gave up.

The market from June to November 2011 was even more disastrous, falling from $29 to almost $2 and not recovering until February 2013.

These are obviously cherry-picked dates, and you'd clearly have made a profit eventually if you kept holding, but it's still very possible to hold Bitcoin for years and lose money.

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mirimir8y ago

The thing is, for someone who bought a year or more ago, anything less than a 50% correction is small. Also, prudent folk take some of their winnings out of play.

Frogolocalypse8y ago

Bitcoin would have to drop 85% in value from where it is now to only have doubled in value over the past year. I'll take 100% yearly value growth any day of the week.

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lunchables8y ago

That's the same as it's been for the last few years. This isn't even a huge correction (yet) in bitcoin terms.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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krrrh8y ago

Let’s see how everyone feels after the next correction. The headlines today seem to change every time I load google news. Up 10%, down 20%. There’s no way to know where it will go from here.

heurist8y ago

ChrisRazzzz8y ago

This is gambling.

2 more replies

knownothingOP8y ago

Yes. But I already stated that in my response. We do not know the future and you shouldn't trust anyone who tells you differently.

goodside8y ago

> But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter).

The market from June to November 2011 was even more disastrous, falling from $29 to almost $2 and not recovering until February 2013.

These are obviously cherry-picked dates, and you'd clearly have made a profit eventually if you kept holding, but it's still very possible to hold Bitcoin for years and lose money.

1 more reply

mirimir8y ago

The thing is, for someone who bought a year or more ago, anything less than a 50% correction is small. Also, prudent folk take some of their winnings out of play.

Frogolocalypse8y ago

Bitcoin would have to drop 85% in value from where it is now to only have doubled in value over the past year. I'll take 100% yearly value growth any day of the week.

1 more reply

lunchables8y ago

That's the same as it's been for the last few years. This isn't even a huge correction (yet) in bitcoin terms.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse