I believe your assessment of "government ban" is a good bet. People forget that governments always want to control the money; I believe they'll let bitcoin go for a while to gain national acceptance - and then outlaw it in favor of a self created currency. Then, since having all money be digital and tracked is useful to a govt, they'll introduce a country wide one.

Why do you think it’ll make it as far as governments banning it? I suppose it depends on whether it’s a reaction to laundering or tax losses, with the former meriting attention a lot sooner than the latter.

Getting out of the stock market in 2006 is not bad as far as market timing goes.