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0 pointsSpooky238y ago0 comments

Look at sectors that benefit from the political environment.

Things like pharmaceuticals with ok pipelines, good companies in shitty sectors (say a company like Costco in retail), health insurers and companies like McDonald's that do well when the rest of the world does not. Think about smaller players who benefit from net neutrality going away.

You should have a running list of good companies and invest as you see corrections or downturns.

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mdorazio8y ago

This is not at all like what the parent post implied. You're basically saying to pick sectors/companies that will net a slightly better than market rate of return on average. Which is great. However, this is very far from a 10000x return on true outliers, long shots, and market bubbles.

Spooky23OP8y ago

I think he was taking some license.

Knowing your shit and having liquid cash is key to those opportunities. My play portfolio made a 10x return after the financial crisis because of knowing key sectors and having cash.

Likewise, I had a nice bitcoin hit that could have been a 1000x play, but to be honest I got out to buy a car, which in retrospect was a very dumb decision!

sjg0078y ago

Reminds me of the HN guy who sold his sun stock to by a car..

Procrastes8y ago

By the time I had Sun stock, I would have had to pay someone to take it. Still loved working there.

I cashed out a bunch of bitcoin for what I thought was going to be a near peak price at the time, $800. Fortunately, I never agree with myself completely, so I saved a few for the long run. Thinking back, I can't really say I would do anything differently with the information I had at the time.

vostok8y ago

Not that it matters, but 100000% is 1000x.

This isn't investment advice. I think the idea is that you'll have some investments that yield 1000x and some that yield 0x so you'll average out to something that's better than the market, but not 1000x.

mdorazio8y ago

I agree. However, the original question was more like, "if it's easy to see what will yield a huge return, what should I invest in today to get that return?" To me, it's pretty clear that investments yielding huge returns are only obvious in hindsight, and even an astute tech-savvy investor will, on average, only do slightly better than a normal diversified portfolio.

Spooky23OP8y ago

Those two statements don’t jive. It’s not impossible to trade hours for a return significantly better than a normal diversified portfolio, but less than being an early bitcoin miner.

2 more replies

TimPC8y ago

Your instincts about pharma may be badly wrong. Many hackers are shocked that pharma stocks generally go up when they downsize in research -- it seems wrong to our builder instinct but it makes sense in terms of short-term opportunity.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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mdorazio8y ago

Spooky23OP8y ago

I think he was taking some license.

Knowing your shit and having liquid cash is key to those opportunities. My play portfolio made a 10x return after the financial crisis because of knowing key sectors and having cash.

Likewise, I had a nice bitcoin hit that could have been a 1000x play, but to be honest I got out to buy a car, which in retrospect was a very dumb decision!

sjg0078y ago

Reminds me of the HN guy who sold his sun stock to by a car..

Procrastes8y ago

By the time I had Sun stock, I would have had to pay someone to take it. Still loved working there.

vostok8y ago

Not that it matters, but 100000% is 1000x.

mdorazio8y ago

Spooky23OP8y ago

Those two statements don’t jive. It’s not impossible to trade hours for a return significantly better than a normal diversified portfolio, but less than being an early bitcoin miner.

2 more replies

TimPC8y ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse