An Analysis of the Catalonian Referendum (opens in new tab)

No, you won't

Watch the Guardia Civil show the world how fascist the Spaniards are and remind us of who won the civil war.

I would just like to point out what i believe are some of the most misleading statements in the article:

Calling the Guardia Civil a paramilitary force is like calling the carabinieri and gendarmes the same. It is indeed a police force with a military structure. However, it is not at all like the armed force of a violent political party, like, say, the SA.

The constant quoting of the great Orwell is out of context and can be barely justified as an attempt to keep with the missapropriation of the famous book's title. Fortunately, Spain, and Europe, are totally different to what they were like in the 1930s. Spain then was a total mess, with centuries old problems of all sorts coming to a head all at once, in addition to a massive international economic and political crisis, which I accept and understand contributed to Catalonia's drive for independence. It would be like trying to explain Merkel's Germany by quoting from 1930s foreign books about Hitler.

Ok I could go on and on in the same vein ...

Thankfully, as I said, Spain is a very different country now, and although emotions are running high, so far both sides have shown a restraint that would have been unthinkable when Orwell was alive. Something has been learned from history after all.

At the end of the day, this, as is always the case in the real world, is all about power, hearts and minds, propaganda, diplomacy, economy, interests, and, yes, hard power too, although I hope and believe it will not come to that. And the fact is that the spanish state has the upper hand here and just wont let it happen, too much to lose. The independence movement's only hope is to gather a so far lacking foreign support, which is what has allowed other weaker regions to achieve independence. But in those cases, on top of more or less plausible reasons for independence, (ex-Yugoslavia, South Sudan, East Timor, etc) there were attrocities and general mistreatment under comtemporary, not historical, dictatorships that, lets be honest, thankfully, is nowhere to be seen in the matter at hand.

Just one historical note: in the 15th century the kingdom of Aragon, which included Catalonia, was desperate to avoid a French invasion and so came to an agreement with Castile, which is the origin of modern Spain. Do you really believe that the alternative for Catalonia would have been independence? It actually lost a chunk to France anyway, north of the natural border, the Pyrenees, the Cerdagne and Rousillon. Ok but now is now, I know, and, of course, there is much more than this. Nobody cares about real history anyway unless it suits their agenda. This holds for both sides of course.

The referendum is just not the way. For better or worse, the spanish public opinion, unlike the english one (UK would have lost one of its poorest regions, Spain its richest, much more at stake), just isn't ready for this. And even if there was one, and the independentists lost, come on, they would just call a new one every 2 years until they could claim 50.1%. Who would elaborate the census? Who would organize it? What would happen afterwards? This is a very important unresolved issue that the Guardian rightly mentions when it says that the current coalition in Catalonia is a ragtag mix that can only agree on one thing.

It is also important to realize that time is also on the spanish side. The statu quo, although far from ideal, is much more palatable to them. There is none of the emergency of the separatists, who smell a historical opportunity in the wake of the mismanaged financial crisis. Nothing new here btw if we remember that this movement was energized in the aftermath of the huge spanish crisis of 1898, when the bulk of lingering overseas colonies was lost (and where the discontent catalonian burgoise had many business interests).

I hope that both leaderships realize that their traditional approach will only keep leading to a deadlock and that they will finally try to find a compromise acceptable for all. I am not holding my breath though. Compromise is not a Spanish word (and compromis has a different meaning).

I just don't find your arguments for separation tell the whole story. I support self-determination but ultimately the strongest argument for independence is that Catalonia has a population of greater than several EU states and could go it alone without federalism.

You mention oppression under Franco. He hated and executed a bunch of people, from anarchists, to PSOE under Largo Caballero, to hard core communists. Other language minorities were not allowed to spread their language either. That was 40 years ago. Do you really blame the rest of the country, today, for the 'sins' of their grandparents?

Old wounds and if your hatred is for "Madrid", they were Republicans - NOT bullfighting fascists.

Galegos and Basques would have equal claim to independence under linguistic autonomy. But I guess I see bilingualism as a blessing rather than a curse. And in that regard the Catalonian government's educational policies have been undoing the historical trauma of Spanish as the "High" language of diglossia. Yet Valencia isn't calling to become a separate country, despite Valenciano being a near-identical language.

I'm not condoning the actions of PP, Rajoy or the Guardia Civil by any means.