I know many people see long-term growth and potential in Uber, but I don't. They shook up the market which is a good thing, but at this point it feels like they're rearranging chairs on the titanic.
It might be years while this all plays out, but I see the absolute best case scenario for Uber is a Groupon type of situation - making lots of revenue, but kind of struggling. Without a drastic change to the business model, I can't see them ever having Facebook/Google/Microsoft like margins.
And as much as some in the tech community see self-driving cars as just around the corner, I would be very surprised if it's a common sight in 10 years. Maybe 20 years. It's not just the technology, but also the political and societal resistance to such a big change.
And if self-driving cabs is what's going to make Uber actually work for the long-term, well... I personally wouldn't bet on it. But they have, so let's see how that works out for them.
To the point about seeing potential in Uber: they definitely shook things up and grew quickly, but with the competition now growing in their sector, it seems that this growth has slowed a bit and sadly they have been in the news for wrong reasons. If this CEO is aiming for massive growth and pushing revenue way up, could be an uphill battle.
Okay, now with all that obvious stuff out of the way I have to ruminate on the idea of self-driving cars. On HN, with TechCrunch and speaking with friends I have who work in the Valley, you would think self-driving cars are around the corner, may be wifely adopted within 5-10 years and possibly could propel companies like Uber into the stratosphere of Google and Facebook.
My hesitation is that we here on HN and others who spend hours immersed in tech thinkpieces are not indicative of society at-large in certain ways. Something that seems like a fantastic idea to many of us may seem outright scary or "going too far" for the everyday person. I feel like self-driving cars may be one of these ideas. Who knows how long adoption and general acceptance could take? I have no data other than anecdotal to share, so I shall refrain. This is just my gut feeling.
