>I think it's more like not hiring a big name coding competition winner because they never bothered to learn how to use version control, or any coding best practice, or any language other than C.
Depends on what you're hiring for, but I'll take "competition winner with no version control" over "average programmer with expert VC capabilities".
>Bayes rule isn't some kind of deep magic
Yes, it's largely conceptually obsolete.
The people jamming out weekly SOTA machine learning models on arxiv aren't sitting around meditating on conditional probabilities. They're making little tweaks to giant models that are basically impossible for a human to comprehend.