The last three packages I got from Amazon were late, even though they were Prime guaranteed. Only one of those was the fault of the carrier, the other two sat in the Amazon distribution center for the two guaranteed days, only making it to the carrier long after they should have been in my mailbox.
While I was able to get an extension on my Prime membership all three times, I'm starting to wonder if I should just drop it altogether. Yes, the shipping is "free" even if it's late, but it's damned annoying when I try to plan around a guaranteed date that ends up anything but guaranteed.