`histappend` probaby works the way you want it to.
I have about a half dozen terminals open. I want to have the current shell's history seem consistent within any shell, but I want ^R in any NEW terminal to include all the commands entered in any terminal.
shopt -s histappend
HISTCONTROL=ignoredups:ignorespace
# append to bash history Right Now
export PROMPT_COMMAND="history -a"
I share your distrust, though -- I've frequently lost my bash history for $REASONS (which another comment here seems to have answered :)) -- but the convenience of not having my shell history clobbered by which-shell-I-close-first is _amazing_.