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0 pointsfab1an8y ago0 comments

The 'problem' with the stock market is that most of these expectations are usually already priced in, i.e. NVDA's market cap today reflects expectations of massive future growth.

That said, NVDA's stock just went 7% down due to an analyst's downgrade (which in the long run is relatively meaningless), so if you'd want to buy NVDA stock and hold it long term now might be a good time.

Disclosure: I am long NVDA, and my stock picking track record is atrocious.

0 comments

akuma738y ago

That's right.

The stock price reflects the market's overall expectation of all future cash flows discounted to the present value - all the way out to infinity.

When you buy at stock, you are implicitly betting that reality will exceed those expectations.

So, you just said that massive growth is priced in, and the fact you hold the stock implies that you are betting on even more massive growth - relative to expectations.

fab1anOP8y ago

Correct. The bet here is that 1. we're only seeing the very early stages of what's possible with GPU-based DNNs and 2. while Wall St is certainly considering the future applications their fantasies are on the conservative side.

The main risks to this thesis are that 1. DL could turn out to be a short-lived trend or 2. a new semiconductor technology emerges that is 10x better suited for DL/ML (Google's new architecture?)

samstave8y ago

Does DNN == Deep Neural Network or Dynamic Neural Net?

samstave8y ago

"invest" can be interpreted multiple ways... stock and brain-space...

I think brain-space is the safer investment if we are not talking about getting rich from the stock but enrichening the cyber-sphere from that which can be developed in the ML/DL/AI space...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsfab1an8y ago0 comments

The 'problem' with the stock market is that most of these expectations are usually already priced in, i.e. NVDA's market cap today reflects expectations of massive future growth.

Disclosure: I am long NVDA, and my stock picking track record is atrocious.

0 comments

akuma738y ago

That's right.

The stock price reflects the market's overall expectation of all future cash flows discounted to the present value - all the way out to infinity.

When you buy at stock, you are implicitly betting that reality will exceed those expectations.

So, you just said that massive growth is priced in, and the fact you hold the stock implies that you are betting on even more massive growth - relative to expectations.

fab1anOP8y ago

The main risks to this thesis are that 1. DL could turn out to be a short-lived trend or 2. a new semiconductor technology emerges that is 10x better suited for DL/ML (Google's new architecture?)

samstave8y ago

Does DNN == Deep Neural Network or Dynamic Neural Net?

samstave8y ago

"invest" can be interpreted multiple ways... stock and brain-space...

I think brain-space is the safer investment if we are not talking about getting rich from the stock but enrichening the cyber-sphere from that which can be developed in the ML/DL/AI space...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse