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I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit?
Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.
Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy.
What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency.
Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market.
Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part)
Furthermore, the 'traditional' car market, while slow to move, is not far behind. And in some cases is taking a longer view. E.g. Ford is going straight to Level 4 in 2022. Forget the ICE v. electric debate, that ship has sailed and everyone is heading to EV. The real battle will be to produce the safest self driving product.
I am long on TSLA, I expect them to do well however they are in a far riskier spot than Apple was when the iPhone dropped. They were healthy, profitable and experienced (+Jobs). TSLA is none of those.
I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I just thought we were past the Apple analogies.
Tesla is currently training their driving AI using the existing fleet in shadow mode. How do you skip this step and go straight to level 4? They need months of tuning outside a lab, worldwide.
A lot of car manufacturers still refuse to build an EV from the ground up. They are reusing an ICE platform and converting them to EVs.
Mazda don't even acknowledge that they need to build EVs. https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-custom...
heh, I'm sorry. Musk is still alive and surpassed Jobs long ago now, he's up to his 5th disruptive successful company. Online Payment, Cars, Space, Solar roofs and AI beat shiny laptop and smartphone.
It actually makes sense to jump to level 4 from both a liability & design/platform perspective.
The fact that Tesla is bleeding through the first few stages with driver-in-the-loop doesn't necessarily mean they get to maintain a competitive advantage long term.
(Also, Mazda is a 2nd tier manufacturer, little resources, mostly Ford parts Inc drivetrain, engine and firmware)
Finally, I appreciate the Musk fandom. As someone with a little skin in TSLA, I aim to take an objective view fwiw.
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/4591/the-war-for-autonomous-dri...
Further, the dealer model forces high markups, heavy advertising, etc to attract the kind of people that buy new cars.
Apple ate market share from Nokia because of brand advantage.
Many commentators mention that manufacturers are improving their EV product, but I think that boat has long sailed: Tesla vs. Ford won't be about features, but the brand.
And with an EV, there won't be that awkward moment when their friends ask how their transmission is doing...
None, but I would hazard a guess that's because if you want to buy a BMW, a Mercedes or an Audi, you don't need to. You can simply go and buy one!
Futurama scene where Fry has been transported to the year 3000 and he still has his ATM card: The bank teller checks Fry's bank balance. She says, "You had 93 cents in your account in 2000. With an average interest rate of 2.25% compounded for 1000 years . . . that brings your balance to $4.3 billion dollars."
The math is correct. Plug those numbers into the compound interest formula, Pn = P0 (1 + r/100)^n, and you really do get $4.3 billion.
Your gut feeling is that even with 93 cents, you could retire rich. Not a billionaire, but comfy. It ain't so. In 50 years, you'd have $2.83. And even that $2 gain would be wiped out by a single monthly banking fee :-).
In 400 years, $6820. My intuition told me that I should be in the millions by then. Wasn't even close. Didn't even account for taxes and inflation.
1.06^30 is like 5.5 ish? Unless you mean on saving 1k pa which is not what they are talking about, and means you're very much changing the game (and apparently not derisking towards retirement)
If my basic needs like housing and healthcare were already met (unfortunately they aren't), my next purchase would probably be a Tesla or a Solar/Powerwall combo for the house, or both.
Your anecdotal insight into how desirable the tesla is to you means nothing in terms of the market
