story
I don't think 400,000 have just $1,000 to spare for a really anything they will just cancel. The $1,000 mean that the person who reserved it really wanted the car and is unlikely to just refund it unless they have a very good reason to do so.
If you aren't the type of person who can find a spare $1000, you also probably shouldn't be the type of person who spends $30,000 on a car.
(a) Feel a strong obligation to be consistent with past behaviour - not just in placing the deposit, but then thinking and reading about the new car design and wanting a Tesla for months or years.
(b) Want to avoid admitting the 'mistake' of giving Tesla a free loan. Not just admitting the mistake to themselves, but also to all their friends they told about their deposit.
(c) Hate giving up something they 'own' - ie. their place in the queue
(d) Value something that's scarce more than something that's easily available
(e) Are more likely to want something that other people love and are queueing up to buy.
Also, same feeling of 'meh' based on leaks so far. I was really hoping for a scaled down S with fewer amenities, lower performance, etc. rather than something from scratch. The no dashboard instrument cluster thing bugs me, as does the fact that AWD won't be available initially (hurting the chances of the rebate if I want AWD), but I'll wait until at least the final reveal if not later to make my decision.
I reserved a Model 3 because I figured that if I didn't, I would be at the end of a very long waiting list and would probably lose out on the federal rebate. The most likely outcome is that I'll decide that's too much to spend on a car and cancel, but it still made sense to me to keep my options open.
I expect a lot of those reservations to be converted to actual sales, but a lot of them won't. In any case, I think Tesla will have plenty of demand if the product meets expectations.
