Yeah, I think they'll lose 99.5% developer mindshare as well. Which is the one thing Ballmer got right. Don't underestimate the value of developer support for a platform like iOS.
Developers also very often go where the system is convenient and open and developer-friendly, see: the rise of linux, php, rails, node, mysql, wordpress, git; and android vs windows phone/mobile.
On server I think this is correct. On consumer devices this is really not the case. Has any platform with a huge consumer base ever died by being abandoned by developers first, as opposed to device owners?
