AOT native results in slower runtimes for applications with one simple
exception: startup time. In every other case a modern JIT compiler like the
JVM will win due to gathering information and layered compilation.
That's not necessarily true. JIT compilation is severely constrained in the amount of analysis that it can do for the simple reason that JIT has to be fast. Fast enough to not noticeably slow down the app. Meanwhile, an AOT compiler can take all the sweet time it needs, and roam all over the program in order to discover optimizations.JIT compilers work very well on untyped languages like Smalltalk because the compiler can discover the type information at runtime, and then pre-compile the types that it sees most often. But that's not really that useful on the JVM, because Java is typed, as are most other JVM languages, with the exception of Clojure.
Most funnily Microsoft was heavily advertising AOT with .net framework 1.0
but in general switched to dynamic profiling and optimization in later
versions of .net. (System assemblies that everybody uses during startup are
AOT compiled using ngen, however)
Actually, with .Net Native, Microsoft is back to advertising AOT.