http://bgr.com/2016/07/20/ios-vs-android-developers-profits-...
shows the Android store with twice as many downloads but half as much revenue. The importance of this is going to vary depending on specifics about your application - does it need a strong network effect to deliver value, or is it valuable for a solo user?
1. Do these numbers include ad revenue?
2. Do these numbers include music, magazine and movie sales?
3. Do the Android number include Amazon and the Chinese stores?
4. Do the Apple numbers include desktop apps?
5. Do the Google numbers include chrome extensions?
6. Do Google numbers include third party services such as spotify and netflix? (from the article, the Apple numbers seem to do that)
7. Do Google numbers include hardware sales (via the Play store)?
With that said, both stores are showing extreme growth so neither is a dead end and you will be happy which ever you choose:
http://www.gsmarena.com/google_play_app_revenue_up_82_in_q4_...
Are you sure it's a new idea? Have you really searched the 2million+ apps out there to be sure? Truly new and original ideas are rare, most things you can do on a mobile have been tried at some point in the last 10 years. Check again, and learn from what others have done.
Have you validated the idea? I don't mean asked your mates if they like it. I mean have you got someone to give you money as a pre-order?
Do you know exactly who your market is and how you'll reach them? Putting something on the app store is not enough, it'll vanish without trace. You need a marketing channel outside the app store that can get to your target market and tell them about the app.
Have you tested that marketing channel? Personally I would do this before writing any code. If the marketing channel doesn't work then you need to find that out first and find one that does work. Don't worry about advertising vapourware, if people really want your app they'll wait a bit (see Kickstarter for evidence).
Unless, of course, this is a side project that is never intended to make serious money. If so, then pick whatever technology and platform you want to learn (I'd second React Native as a tech to learn). Market sizes don't matter if you've got no customers and no channel.
It just needs to be better than what's out there :)
If you're solving a problem that you have, then it's likely that other people have the same problem.
What phone do you have? I'd develop for that first, so you're solving the problem you have. Get it to the point where you're happy using it, and use it every day (or every time the problem occurs). Only look at publishing it to others once you've reached that point where it's really solving your problem and you really do use it.
Is it the additional layer of abstraction? Or is it an issue of the uncanny valley?
I understand that you may not want to discuss anything proprietary to your app, but I'm interested in understanding your thought process.
But in truth, you should probably be looking at making your Minimal Viable Product in whatever you are the most comfortable in. Because you'll want to get it out and in potential customers hands as fast as possible and prove that your idea really is as useful to people as you believe.
I'm also going to take a stab here and say that you're probably not a super experienced developer, because trying to launch and support an app across two different platforms in different languages almost simultaneously isn't an easy feat to manage.
If your app doesn't use device features that are not exposed to the browser, building a progressive web app (https://developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps/) will save you a lot of effort, help you get to market faster, and spend far less money on user acquisition than a native app. On iOS, PWAs look and feel no different from regular websites. On Android, you get access to native-like features, including support for loading the app offline, push notifications, the ability to install the app to the homescreen, a separate entry in the task switcher, etc.
I wouldn't build something like Snapchat or Instagram as a webapp, simply because building those experiences in the browser and getting them just right is still kinda hard. However, most applications aren't Snapchat or Instagram, and a prototype certainly doesn't need that level of spit and polish.
You might still choose to build a native app somewhere down the line, but starting with a webapp gives you a chance to evaluate your idea and get something working in the hands of your users very quickly.
React Native might also be a good choice. I was pretty impressed with what it could do on iOS, but I had challenges getting it to work on Android.
If your revenue model is app sales, go IOS.
If your revenue model is mobile advertising, you probably want to go Android.
Beyond that, it gets complicated, but I think the following are valid (though your specific user segment might flip the other way on each of these):
Freemium models (ie. a free app that you can upgrade to a paid version) should probably go Android first.
Free with in-app purchases (eg. F2P games) should also probably go Android first, but it is not as clear-cut.
If your revenue model is transactional (eg. flash sales), go iOS first.
No matter what, list your assumptions (that users have the problem your app will solve, that you know the language they use to think about and describe their problem, that they are actively looking for a solution, that they will be willing to pay to solve their problem, that they will be interested in your solution, that they will be willing to pay for your solution, any assumptions about their price sensitivity, your assumptions about reaching potential customers to make them aware of your solution, your effectiveness at turning "lookers" into "buyers"), and aggressively validate and de-risk all those assumptions.
Good luck!
