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0 pointsroymurdock9y ago0 comments

Understood, I'm looking for an analysis - it would cost x to hire the same size team of researchers with comparable research experience for the same amount of time to build out these datasets as proof-of-concept products, plus whatever other costs an ML research team accrues.

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paulsutter9y ago

You're missing the variable N, the number of times you'd have to repeat the experiment to replicate the quality of the results. N might be 10, might be 100.

As an analyst it should be easy for you to figure out x for Maluuba, just McKinsey it. But that isn't really a meaningful number. Researchers aren't fungible commodities traded on an exchange.

roymurdockOP9y ago

Sure, but I think the size of a research team's budget/grant allocation is a good proxy for how "valuable" that research team is. Also, just because you and I are paid salaries doesn't make us commodities, but it does give info on our worth to our organization's/context in the overall economy.

Someone had to evaluate this deal, and I'm interested in understanding the process behind valuing something so far-removed from any commercial product or market.

paulsutter9y ago

If you want to know /how "valuable" that research team is/, find out what Microsoft paid for the Maluuba. The number is not in line with their salaries. A few notes on that:

"Ex-Googler Sebastian Thrun says the going rate for self-driving talent is $10 million per person" http://www.recode.net/2016/9/17/12943214/sebastian-thrun-sel...

"Artificial Intelligence Teams Being Acquired For $2.5m/employee; Employee Value Often Far Exceeds Business Value" https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/artificial-intelligence-teams...

"DeepMind was said to have around 75 employees when Google picked it up in 2014. If the deal closed at the rumored amount, that would put the cost per employee at an eye-popping $6.66 million. Magic Pony is said to have had a team of 14 when it was acquired by Twitter—$10.7 million per employee." http://pitchbook.com/news/articles/tech-giants-paying-big-mo...

deepnotderp9y ago

Researchers aren't commodities.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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paulsutter9y ago

You're missing the variable N, the number of times you'd have to repeat the experiment to replicate the quality of the results. N might be 10, might be 100.

As an analyst it should be easy for you to figure out x for Maluuba, just McKinsey it. But that isn't really a meaningful number. Researchers aren't fungible commodities traded on an exchange.

roymurdockOP9y ago

Someone had to evaluate this deal, and I'm interested in understanding the process behind valuing something so far-removed from any commercial product or market.

paulsutter9y ago

If you want to know /how "valuable" that research team is/, find out what Microsoft paid for the Maluuba. The number is not in line with their salaries. A few notes on that:

"Ex-Googler Sebastian Thrun says the going rate for self-driving talent is $10 million per person" http://www.recode.net/2016/9/17/12943214/sebastian-thrun-sel...

"Artificial Intelligence Teams Being Acquired For $2.5m/employee; Employee Value Often Far Exceeds Business Value" https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/artificial-intelligence-teams...

deepnotderp9y ago

Researchers aren't commodities.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse