undefined | Better HN

0 pointsgizmo9y ago0 comments

Interesting discussion, although I disagree with the conclusion.

I don't think betting the house on a single event is "insane". Businesses make these all-in bets all the time and we're fine with it. Every Hollywood blockbuster is also a billion dollar all-in bet, but nobody bats an eye at that either. Individuals bet a huge percentage of their net worth when they buy a house. Yet when a person invests a large amount of their net worth in a single stock it's suddenly irresponsible? Hogwash.

The way we perceive risk in society is extraordinarily polarized. Some moderately risky behavior is considered normal, and other moderately risky behavior is deemed "insane". I don't think there is any rhyme or reason to it; just a matter of arbitrary cultural norms.

0 comments

sirclueless9y ago

It's not necessarily as arbitrary as you're making it out. For businesses, the cost of failure is low and the potential upside is enormous. As a result, risk-seeking behavior makes sense, and people generally respect that. For humans, the cost of failure is very high, and the upside is only the productivity of one 2 meter bag of flesh with a brain inside. Taking existential risks as a human is foolish for reasons that do not apply to businesses.

gizmoOP9y ago

I'm not sure what to make of your response. Texting while driving, or simply driving inattentively, is an existential risk. Investing aggressively on the stock market is not. Yet one thing is considered normal, while the other thing is considered reckless. Businesses tend to take too many risks. After all, decisions are made with other people's money, and there are career benefits to taking a risk that works out but there is hardly a penalty for squandering the company's money. Individuals tend to to take the wrong kind of risks: too careless about getting seriously injured and too timid about financial and career risks.

I'm not claiming that all risks by society are judged incorrectly, just that it happens frequently enough that much is to be gained by being really skeptical towards the consensus views on risk.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse