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0 pointspierrec9y ago0 comments

It seems their data is based on UN research, who publishes regular population projections. The latest revision, published in 2015, apparently only goes up to 2100, at which point they still predict growth. However, if you look at projected growth as it's presented in this article:

http://blogs.worldbank.org/futuredevelopment/rapid-slowdown-...

You can see that the growth is rushing towards zero and almost crosses it in 2100, giving a maximum sometime around 2115. But I wouldn't really count on any projection's accuracy that far into the future: what really sticks out is how the historical growth is extremely jagged, driven by crises and revolutions, then becomes ridiculously smooth as soon as it turns into a projection. It just screams out "this is a very rough approximation and probably wrong".

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Balgair9y ago

Ok, I get what the article you linked to is saying, but I think it's really uninformative. Those graphs are the derivative of the population. What I would most like to see is the absolute number of people on earth over time and then into the future. The derivative, though important, is not as useful (to me) as the absolute number. Hans Rosling has some good TED talks on it, but I think they are probably out of date by now.

pierrecOP9y ago

The graph for the actual population projection was basically linked in the article:

https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

(you have to select "WORLD" in the drop-down)

naasking9y ago

> You can see that the growth is rushing towards zero and almost crosses it in 2100, giving a maximum sometime around 2115.

You're not reading that data correctly, or perhaps, you're simply not accounting for the death rate. The death rate will surpass the growth rate in those projections somewhere between 2050-2080, which means population peak will be in that time frame, not a century from now.

pierrecOP9y ago

Hmm, I think you're the one that's not reading it correctly. The growth rate takes into account both death and birth rates. As Balgair points out, it's simply the derivative of the total population. And the UN's projections do not show population peaking between 2050-2080.

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0 pointspierrec9y ago0 comments

http://blogs.worldbank.org/futuredevelopment/rapid-slowdown-...

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Balgair9y ago

pierrecOP9y ago

The graph for the actual population projection was basically linked in the article:

https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

(you have to select "WORLD" in the drop-down)

naasking9y ago

> You can see that the growth is rushing towards zero and almost crosses it in 2100, giving a maximum sometime around 2115.

pierrecOP9y ago

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