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0 pointsmvitorino9y ago0 comments

I can't think of a single industry that has been able to completely decouple production from labor. Even something as simple as subway ticketing machines or vending machines require technicians to deploy and maintain them. Sure, most people that sold tickets lost that job, but economies have always found a new occupation for most.

Seems to me most have exaggerated expectations of the impact of automation.

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JoeAltmaier9y ago· 2 in thread

No, most have underestimated the effect. A factory that used to have hundreds of workers and a few engineers and technicians, now has just a few engineers and technicians. That's effectively a decoupling of production from labor, however you want to look at it.

Automation of production has been explosive in the last few years. Companies that automate factories have a critical shortage of practical Engineers (no don't get excited; its one automation Engineer for every million people out of work). Automation Engineering requires a working knowledge of mechanical, electrical, chemical and information systems. My Niece flies all around the world installing and controlling automation, and her company cannot find qualified candidates to fill the demand.

mvitorinoOP9y ago

My parents used to own a textile factory that employed at one point over 100 people. The business stopped being competitive and eventually was closed down with production moving to places like Eastern Europe, India and China. So I think a lot of those production jobs have already been destroyed in Europe and North America. Automation is an opportunity for manufacturing to move back closer to the creative and consumer ends of the businesses.

I get your point and I do agree that if a revolution like automation happens too fast, there is potential for social shocks such as high levels of unemployment and worse. But, as you state, the decoupling of the production from labor is actually being naturally throttled down by a scarcity of... labour. And that may buy enough time for society to adjust since education and training are taking longer and longer these days and no shortcut has been created for human learning.

JoeAltmaier9y ago

Folks are still thinking about the problems of yesterday. Yes, overseas factories 'lost' a lot of jobs (actually employment worldwide went up). But today its automation baby. Explosive automation. Factories come back from overseas, but nobody is in these new factories.

Its growing geometrically. In shockingly fewer years than we think, there will be essentially no 'labor' jobs left. America will never again employ labor; its an obsolete idea. Our civilization is leaping forward, and we should plan on a humane response.