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0 pointslacampbell9y ago0 comments

China doesn't mind the US having relations, even friendship, with Taiwan - through private channels. Public recognition of the Taiwanese government as a sovereign entity by the US is insulting though - much as if Premier Xi in China started having friendly chats with the governor of Hawai'i or Alaska while publicly pouring scorn on DC.

Except that is not analogous at all.

Taiwan is de facto Independent. It has its own currency, internationally recognised passports, military, airspace and democratically elects its own representatives. It has been de facto independent from China for almost 70 years. It never fell to maoism and as a result was spared the both the great famine (Which killed more people than the Chinese civil war and Japanese invasion combined) and the cultural revolution. It peacefully transitioned to democracy over 20 years ago, around the time Chinese troops were killing hundreds of civillians in Tian Nan Men square.

It is independent for all intents and purposes. Even PRC nationalists know this, but they need to keep face by not admitting the truth.

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Analemma_9y ago· 1 in thread

I have several close friends from Taiwan, and visit Taipei every couple years. When I go, just for kicks I always ask people how they feel about being part of China. The answer has, invariably, been not just No, but an irritated hell no. As you say, for all practical purposes Taiwan is independent- not just in their government institutions but in the psychology of the populace: they feel like a separate country, and nothing the PRC does can change that any more than Americans could be convinced to "reunify" with the United Kingdom.

China is kidding themselves if they think reunification is going to happen. It's certainly not going to happen voluntarily. And yeah, maybe they could take the island by force, but even if they managed it and it didn't trigger an international conflict, they'd just end up being another US-in-Vietnam/Soviets-in-Afghanistan situation: a forced occupation of an angry, resentful local population, which has no possible outcome other than eventual costly withdrawal.

anigbrowl9y ago

That hasn't stopped them in Tibet. The fact that Taiwan is a smallish island simplifies matters considerably, since China can easily impose a naval blockade and wait for rebels to run out of munitions. Agreed it would work out badly over the long term but strategically it's not hard.

anigbrowl9y ago

I'm not arguing that Hawai'i is similar to Taiwan. I'm saying that China holding friendly top-level conversations with the governor of a state while simultaneously refusing dialogue with the federal government is the only thing I can think of that would result in a similar loss of face (degree of political embarrassment) for the USA.

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Analemma_9y ago· 1 in thread

anigbrowl9y ago

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