> Toyota could probably do it more cheaply than Uber.

I agree. The fact that autonomous cars will likely reduce ownership will put a squeeze on car companies, and it might make sense for them to branch into service areas, as they can get the cars at cost. I guarantee that for 10,000 Camrys purchased by Uber and 10,000 Camrys built and shuffled to a ride service division by Toyota, Toyota's ride-sharing division will get the sweeter deal on price.

Put another way, it's much easier for Toyota to start a ride service company than it is for Uber to start manufacturing cars to get them at cost.

I take it that Uber is betting on being thee brand for ride sharing. Maintaining market leadership is critically important for when autonomous cars take off. Even if any car manufacturer were able to undermine Uber on cost, Uber will already have a significant upper hand with people already seeing it as the company you call to get somewhere. The only question I ask myself when looking to go somewhere is, Uber or Lyft?

If car manufacturers tried to clone what Uber has built they'll probably flop on making the technology usable, and the experience may just be overall frustrating.

Demand for new cars will fall off a cliff.

People will still buy Rolls-Royce or Mercedes S-class for the comfort, but most Toyota customers don't care if they're car pooling with 3 other people or sitting in a car that's not their own.