undefined | Better HN

0 pointsTHE_PUN_STOPS9y ago0 comments

True, the controls challenges to a self driving truck may be easier than a personal car, but the stakes in the event of an accident are an order of magnitude greater in an autonomous truck. As proof, let's napkin-math some kinetic energies using 0.5mv^2.

If we are riding along in the current heaviest production car, the Rolls Royce Phantom Extended-wheelbase[1], which weighs in at 6000 pounds, and we are moving at 70 miles per hour, we have a kinetic energy of 1.33 Megajoules. [2]

Now, let's hop in the heaviest federally allowed tractor-trailer, which weighs 80,000 pounds, and get ourselves to 60 mph, a more reasonable speed for such a massive object. This comes to 13 Megajoules. [3]

The upshot is, one fully loaded truck moving at 60mph could cause the same amount of damage as 10 passenger cars all moving at 70mph. This means that as a firm, your liability is 10 times greater per vehicle. Insurance is 10 times more expensive. Regulation is 10 times as strict. At that level of risk, it'd be stupid to not put a human in the cab of your autonomous truck right? Just in case, and to shield yourselves from legal issues. But wait, why not just get him to drive and save yourself a lot of R&D money?

I work in the commercial trucking industry and real-world challenges mean this self-driving equation is not as lucrative as people believe. And we haven't even touched the Jobs Problem. Hence the focus on passenger vehicles. I do think autonomous trucking will become popular eventually, but this industry moves at a glacial pace for a reason.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_superlative...

[2]: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.5+*+6000+pounds+*+70...

[3]: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.5+*+80000+pounds+*+6...

0 comments

jedberg9y ago

Amazon will be willing to take the risk to avoid the trucking unions. FedEx is pretty forward thinking and might also be willing to take the risk since they self insure. Same with UPS.

Once those folks prove that it works and it's safer than a human, the other companies will quickly fall as the insurance rates become lower than a human driven truck.

hehheh9y ago

A self driving truck doesn't have to go 60mph to be as cost efficient as a human driven truck. They could be governed at 45 mph and still come out way ahead and cause far less damage if something does go wrong.

ghaff9y ago

So now you have a greater disparity of vehicle speeds on a typical highway. Having just returned from driving on highways cutting through mountain ranges, I'm acutely aware of the "interesting" driving that results from having vehicles traveling at very different speeds on long uphill grades.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse