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0 pointsqwrusz9y ago0 comments

The market cannot be beat by 100% of amateurs piddling away on their brokerage account during a few spare hours a week.

The market cannot be beat by 99.9% of professional investors spending all their time day and night trying and with a team of people helping them.

I'm calling your bluff on you being an econ PhD student or maybe you have been one for a month or two at most...? If you are an econ grad student you know what RenTec is doing more or less. At least in theory if not specifics, people talk and there's plenty of econ papers explaining what's underneath major quant strategies.

People need to chill bringing up RenTec when finance comes up (Buffett too). Just like they need to chill bringing up Facebook when talking about startup valuations. Outliers are outliers.

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jamez19y ago

Academia doesn't pay that much attention to the real world. Most of the papers out there are rubbish and would be considered junior level work, except with way too much detail.

There are pretty much no econ papers that would describe what happens inside the high end systematic firms. (Source: I work in the industry)

Bringing up the outliers is a perfect counterexample when wild sweeping statements are made. These are not even real outliers, they are valid samples.

>The market cannot be beat by 99.9% of professional investors spending all their time day and night trying and with a team of people helping them.

Professional investors pretty consistently beat the market. But not the ones that you see. The louder someone markets their fund, the more likely it is to be a scam. Your sample is of guys who heavily promote their fund and make money from management fees not performance.

The best managers aren't even made visible to you. Why would you attract attention to what you're doing if you have a good thing going?

rphlx9y ago

I agree & the "pro-index" crowd would improve the accuracy, if not the effectiveness, of its message by saying "non-passive strategies can work superbly, but not for outsiders with <$1M in capital" instead of saying "no one beats the market in the long run" / "you can't predict which parties will beat the market in the long run".

Inconel9y ago

>high end systematic firms

I'm not familiar with this term, would you mind giving me a general description of what kind of investing these firms take part in?

jamez19y ago

"Algotrading" generally refers to execution algorithms only, despite popular culture's interpretation.

When the funds portfolio is decided based on a system your fund is systematic. It's an important distinction.

qwruszOP9y ago

Illuminati confirmed then right. My bad.

Professional investors are not pretty consistently beating the market...secular! Anyone can have a good year or two.

I'm not talking about dudes talking their book on CNBC. Yes there are shops that beat the market, but if you have beaten the market 5 years in a row, you can't keep it a secret even if you want to.

jamez19y ago

How exactly do you think the performance is made public, if the fund doesn't want it to be? This isn't about illuminati, this is just logic. You can't hide what you're doing from the institutions you have to deal with, but they won't exactly disclose it to general public.

Why would you promote your fund, if you have all the FUM you need? If you are doing well, why would you tell people about it? It is funny that your position is because you haven't seen it, it doesn't exist.

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0 pointsqwrusz9y ago0 comments

The market cannot be beat by 100% of amateurs piddling away on their brokerage account during a few spare hours a week.

The market cannot be beat by 99.9% of professional investors spending all their time day and night trying and with a team of people helping them.

People need to chill bringing up RenTec when finance comes up (Buffett too). Just like they need to chill bringing up Facebook when talking about startup valuations. Outliers are outliers.

0 comments

jamez19y ago

Academia doesn't pay that much attention to the real world. Most of the papers out there are rubbish and would be considered junior level work, except with way too much detail.

There are pretty much no econ papers that would describe what happens inside the high end systematic firms. (Source: I work in the industry)

Bringing up the outliers is a perfect counterexample when wild sweeping statements are made. These are not even real outliers, they are valid samples.

>The market cannot be beat by 99.9% of professional investors spending all their time day and night trying and with a team of people helping them.

The best managers aren't even made visible to you. Why would you attract attention to what you're doing if you have a good thing going?

rphlx9y ago

Inconel9y ago

>high end systematic firms

I'm not familiar with this term, would you mind giving me a general description of what kind of investing these firms take part in?

jamez19y ago

"Algotrading" generally refers to execution algorithms only, despite popular culture's interpretation.

When the funds portfolio is decided based on a system your fund is systematic. It's an important distinction.

qwruszOP9y ago

Illuminati confirmed then right. My bad.

Professional investors are not pretty consistently beating the market...secular! Anyone can have a good year or two.

I'm not talking about dudes talking their book on CNBC. Yes there are shops that beat the market, but if you have beaten the market 5 years in a row, you can't keep it a secret even if you want to.

jamez19y ago

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j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse