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0 pointsdpandey9y ago0 comments

Fitbit had revenues of $14.5 million in 2011, $76.4 million in 2012, $271.1 million in 2013, $754 million in 2014, $1.8B in 2015 and is expected to do $2.4B in 2016.

'Failing' in what sense?

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4 comments · 1 top-level

twblalock9y ago· 3 in thread

> 'Failing' in what sense?

Stock down more than 70% year-to-date, and competing in a market that is rapidly becoming commoditized.

Perhaps "failing" is a a strong word, but I wouldn't describe them more positively than "struggling." Like GoPro, Fitbit sells commodity hardware and is not greatly differentiated from its competitors in terms of hardware, software, or platform lock-in (you may disagree, but the consumer market has clearly spoken).

dpandeyOP9y ago

Their hardware and marketing are good, but software not so much - which is where magic happens. Completely agree that when it comes to software and user experience - Fitbit feels like a 'commodity'.

The 30% fall was mainly triggered by Fitbit revising revenue estimates for Q4 from 985M to somewhere around 725M as well as Q3 performing poorer than expected.

What's fascinating is that Fitbit is still going to do about 2.2B in revenue (up from 1.8B) last year. So annual revenue is going to be more than current market cap (1.7B).

Apart from a less than delightful user experience (resulting in device abandonment and low engagement/retention), Fitbit is also losing market share to Xiaomi in Asia.

So I wouldn't call it failing, but yeah it could do much better :)

twblalock9y ago

> Completely agree that when it comes to software and user experience - Fitbit feels like a 'commodity'.

I don't just mean that. I mean that anybody with business contacts in China could make equivalent fitness-tracking hardware. The barrier to entry for new competitors is very low.

Fitbit needs to be able to prevent a bunch of new competitors from coming out of the woodwork and stealing their marketshare.

dpandeyOP9y ago

PS: I can't reply to the followup post to this post, so answering here. If you go to CES, you'll find a hundred companies that make a fitness band (I did, last year). None of them have Fitbit's branding and name recognition (which is very non-trivial to create).

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

4 comments · 1 top-level

twblalock9y ago· 3 in thread

> 'Failing' in what sense?

Stock down more than 70% year-to-date, and competing in a market that is rapidly becoming commoditized.

dpandeyOP9y ago

Their hardware and marketing are good, but software not so much - which is where magic happens. Completely agree that when it comes to software and user experience - Fitbit feels like a 'commodity'.

The 30% fall was mainly triggered by Fitbit revising revenue estimates for Q4 from 985M to somewhere around 725M as well as Q3 performing poorer than expected.

What's fascinating is that Fitbit is still going to do about 2.2B in revenue (up from 1.8B) last year. So annual revenue is going to be more than current market cap (1.7B).

Apart from a less than delightful user experience (resulting in device abandonment and low engagement/retention), Fitbit is also losing market share to Xiaomi in Asia.

So I wouldn't call it failing, but yeah it could do much better :)

twblalock9y ago

> Completely agree that when it comes to software and user experience - Fitbit feels like a 'commodity'.

I don't just mean that. I mean that anybody with business contacts in China could make equivalent fitness-tracking hardware. The barrier to entry for new competitors is very low.

Fitbit needs to be able to prevent a bunch of new competitors from coming out of the woodwork and stealing their marketshare.

dpandeyOP9y ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse