That's one way it could play out, but that's not the way it did play out. Vim ate Neovim's lunch because they took so long to create a release that Vim was able to copy their best features. Worse yet, they did this in a way that is not compatible with Neovim. There is a chasm between Vim and Neovim that is growing, and the incentive to cross it is shrinking.

As someone who has watched closely Neovim's development since its announcement, and used it as my daily text editor for literal years, I feel sad to say that it is early-stage vapourware. They kicked vim into action, then vim kicked them out of it.