If self driving cars kill 20 thousand people a year, it would still be a major improvement. 30 thousand people die every year from human drivers.

Even if computers can only match humans at skill level, they will be at the skill level 100% of the time, no directions. (And they will probably exceed us in skill anyways)

Car accidents don't happen because people lack skill nearly as often as because people aren't at their best for just a moment. That's why autonomous cars will be safer.

Each new human driver also has to be trained from scratch; when we're starting out, we're dangerous, all of us. An experienced human can't download their knowledge into a new driver telepathically. But software (including AI models trained with data from millions of road miles) can be copied into new cars, no problem.

> It's actually harder to drive on the typical American roadways than it is to be on a track.

Highway driving is relatively easy to automate, compared to driving on surface streets with pedestrians, bicycles, etc. Even if self-driving only worked on the highway, it'd still free up a huge amount of time for a lot of commuters. That'd be worth it even if self-driving cars didn't improve the accident rate.

I have the opposite opinion. I don't think self-driving cars are going to start on ALL roads, but on specific routes that are expanded as required. Eventually all routes will be covered, but it will take time. In truth, 90% (99%?) of my driving is on the same routes, so I don't think this is going to be a major issue.

In the end, I don't think this is going to be about what you, me, or even Tesla thinks. It will be about what insurance companies think. If self-driving cars turn out to be as good as they are promised to be, having a license for driving a car yourself will get more and more expensive. As more riskier drivers have less licenses, those insurance fees will ratchet up and ratchet up, until they are prohibitively expensive.

There's a model for this type of thing... Singapore. This is the type of place that I think will use self-driving cars first. When it starts to happen, I think the transition is going to be very quick.

Can you elaborate on possible causes of ~1.3 million deaths in autonomous vehicle world?

Experience is hard.

But computers can have reflexes that are enormously better than any human.

And reflexes are a huge part of safe driving.

No suspicion needed, Telsa's data already shows their systems are doing better than Human drivers.

I'm quite certain they won't release full autonomy until that also performs better than human drivers.

Aside from the obvious that you or I probably couldn't win an F1 race either, autonomous race cars are coming along - one beat a top driver at Thunderhill Raceway Park in Northern California last year. Not F1 but give it time. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/1141026...