What? No: you cannot "counter" an experience with a non-experience. Users often directly experience the pain of upgrading. This teaches them to avoid upgrading. Users cannot directly experience the pain of not upgrading: that isn't a thing they can experience. At some time fundamentally uncorrelated to their decision to not upgrade an event which may or may not have been prevented if they upgraded happens to them (and that's assuming they even understand what is going on! usually this manifests as "computer is running slower").
This is like trying to teach someone to take extreme safety precautions around the magic glowing green rock that you insist will make them get sick and die thirty years later if they don't follow some exacting procedure that involves wearing a suit with a mask that actively hurts to wear: one with sharp edges which cuts their face and has even on multiple times left them with a scar.
Sure: maybe you can try to spend a bunch of time teaching this person about radiation, but there are billions of them and they don't care. You can force them to wear the suit and make their lives painful and shitty. Or maybe you can admit to yourself that "maybe I am part of the problem" and make the suit not actively hurt to wear. You can't get rid of the suit, but we can at least decrease the attrition as much as possible.
As far as I am concerned, Apple (and I am not neccessarily saying they are unique: only that I only can explicity state at them as I have been so centrally in their ecosystem for the past decade) actively scorns their "uneducated" users, refusing to accept any blame for the people who don't upgrade, and this is whether you are examining at their actual engineering practices, consuming their marketing messages ("be courageous"), or you talk to them in person (my favorite so far being someone who told me they are proud to work there as Apple is willing to tell our users that they are just afraid of the future and will need to adjust).
And again: even looking past this problem (that you really can't "counter" experience with non-experience), providing "stable" upgrades as the default that do not push people to do major upgrades with totally-unrelated massive user interface changes or gratuitously incompatible architecture breakages. Does this take time and thought? Yes. But if you aren't doing this, you--not the user!--are directly responsible for any loss of life or property that results from users not upgrading.
(FWIW, this is actually related in an interesting way to how people in my country, America, do not trust scientists. Rather than attempting to increase trust in science among the general population, which is the reason why countries that have high vaccination rates are where they are, people would prefer to blame the uneducated masses--end users who are constantly being jerked around by popular science reporting who are probably just sick of being told about stuff that never happens or being told to do first one thing and then the opposite next year--and legislate them into forced compliance :/.)
