But if you look at the FT version, it's 1 for 8.
1. What kind of insurance will be needed on a billion dollar NSA satellite? $100 million? $125 million? It's not so cheep anymore, and considering delays etc. It's not such a great deal anymore. 2. They probably should have a "stable" platform and a "beta" platform, with a discount offered for beta.
Unfortunately, the "move fast and break things" attitude doesn't work with rockets.
Less glib, I'm not so sure. In shed development, you spend a lot to make perfect things. Aston Martin or Rolls Royce are great examples of this. In factory development, you spend a lot to make perfect systems. I'd hold up Toyota or Honda as good examples.
I'm not an expert in SpaceX technology, but i thought their big supposed advantage was tons of automation. With bespoke development, it's tough to bring down the failure rate. you just keep testing and verifying more. With a defined system, you fix the system to avoid those errors.
There's obviously a spectrum, and SpaceX isn't that far out on the automation scale, but i do think that's the intention. If they can survive long enough to reap those benefits, their launches will be cheaper and more reliable. In the mean time, lots of cheap, risky, attempts are probably better for debugging than thinking real hard and building the perfect thing.
Rocket technology has never advanced without catastrophic failures. "Breaking things" is the only way forward with it. Rockets, of necessity, have to push designs to their limits, or they'll never lift off the pad.
It seems like building and launching a rocket that doesn't explode every 14th time is possible but its not cheap. The US has been doing it since the 60's. SpaceX may turn out to be OK for delivering Tang to the ISS, but let's let something else carry the Webb into orbit.
* The Apollo 1 launch-pad fire, during a training session, using a 100% pressurised oxygen atomosphere. Three dead. Grissom, White, and Chaffee. I can list them from memory.
* Apollo 11 suffered a lunar lander computer crash in the final seconds before landing, was programmed to land on what would have been unsurvivable terrain, and had fewer than 30 seconds of fuel left when it finally touched down.
* Apollo 12 was struck by lightning as it left the launch pad, knocking out much of the electrical system, which had to be reset. Fortunately they built things robustly.
* Apollo 13 had an oxygen tank explode as it was en route to the moon. The mission was aborted, though orbital mechanics meant that the astronauts still had to orbit the Moon, then return to Earth.
Any of 11, 12, or 13 could have ended with fatalities. One scenario for the command module pilot (Michael Collins in Apollo 11) was, if needs be, to leave his two crew members on the lunar surface and to return to Earth alone.
They did build things robustly back when the US still had a manned space program. I wonder how well a SpaceX rocket would do if it was struck by lightning as it left the pad.
Then again, Apollo 11 couldn't land on a barge. However it could land on the moon with two humans on board and then take off again and return then safely to earth. 47 years ago.
Pre-launch was covered by a different policy.
