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0 pointsxapata9y ago0 comments

Software will continue its bifurcation into two income distributions, similar to lawyers. No lawyer earns average salary. That industry is split into low wage work and high wage work. I expect software will be the same.

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jtfairbank9y ago

This seems to be a trend among many highly paid fields:

- Many doctors earn 100k or 3-400k depending on their field.

- Many small business owners earn <100k or make a killing, depending on their field, goals, and success/luck.

- 9 out of 10 startups outright fail or aren't successful enough to compensate founders & employees for the opportunity cost.

xapataOP9y ago

It's hard to tell what the distribution of income is without good data. I'm skeptical that normal, non-startup businesses fall into this pattern. I'd expect more of a log-normal for most industries.

The log-normal also applies somewhat for lawyers. The partners of big firms make millions annually.

As long as we're getting into nuance, I should add that the two-peak distribution is most clear for lawyer starting salary, not long-time professional. You either go top firm or not.

jtfairbank9y ago

Great points all around! The reason I think small businesses are relevant is that the founders/owners own the entire business. They either lose money, break even, or make money. In the sucessful small business cases where they make money, since they own 100% their profit requirements for a good return are far lower than those of a startup. I'd guess it's still a power law scenario (just with less amplitude than startups).

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jtfairbank9y ago

This seems to be a trend among many highly paid fields:

- Many doctors earn 100k or 3-400k depending on their field.

- Many small business owners earn <100k or make a killing, depending on their field, goals, and success/luck.

- 9 out of 10 startups outright fail or aren't successful enough to compensate founders & employees for the opportunity cost.

xapataOP9y ago

It's hard to tell what the distribution of income is without good data. I'm skeptical that normal, non-startup businesses fall into this pattern. I'd expect more of a log-normal for most industries.

The log-normal also applies somewhat for lawyers. The partners of big firms make millions annually.

As long as we're getting into nuance, I should add that the two-peak distribution is most clear for lawyer starting salary, not long-time professional. You either go top firm or not.

jtfairbank9y ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse