I agree their might be some correlation. What I'm saying is:
- If you really meant you can get 95% precision in hiring from the answer to one question, I believe you only if you're super-conservative in hiring (i.e. will reject unless you're super-confident). In this case, your recall and false negatives is also going to be really high, so your single-question test isn't really helpful.
- If you actually meant 95% accuracy (i.e. precision in the everyday sense, not the math sense), then I don't believe you, because you probably can't estimate your accuracy, unless you also hire some people who fail the interview process.
There are awesome programmers and technical leads who don't have side projects just because they are so focused on their work and being a good parent.
I'm probably over-analysing your original statement, so I'll stop here.