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0 pointsjonny_eh9y ago0 comments

Uber's been likely working on self-driving cars, potentially in partnership with Google. What Tesla has as an advantage though, is an assembly line to produce lots of quality cars. In other words, Tesla will likely be ready for the future of transportation before Uber.

0 comments

sudoscript9y ago

Also millions of miles of fleet learning a day, which Uber doesn't have, since they don't own the cars. Self-driving cars is a supervised learning problem, and he who has the data wins

argonaut9y ago

It is a supervised learning problem, but that doesn't mean it will be solved by just shoving large amounts of data into a black box algorithm. This is not MobileEye's approach, and it almost certainly is not Tesla's approach. The data is useless unless it is annotated (e.g. a human labels where the lanes are, where the obstacles are, what the bicylist is doing, etc.) - that's the bottleneck, not collecting large amounts of raw sensor data + driver actions.

tansey9y ago

> The data is useless unless it is annotated (e.g. a human labels where the lanes are, where the obstacles are, what the bicylist is doing, etc.) - that's the bottleneck, not collecting large amounts of raw sensor data + driver actions.

Except that is exactly what Nvidia did, and it worked out fine for them: https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07316

1 more reply

lallysingh9y ago

There's also the matter of that laser scanner on some cars - usually costing more than the car...

nl9y ago

Not anymore.

Complete LIDAR units are already available for under $500[1]. There are other, cheaper sensors which aren't as good as full LIDAR but are available for under $100[2].

There are plenty of other options hitting the market soon too[3]

[1] http://www.teraranger.com/products/teraranger-lidar/

[2] https://www.pulsedlight3d.com/

[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2015/12/0...

1 more reply

dpc599y ago

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-george-hotz-self-driv...

people are trying to fix this problem too

intrasight9y ago

Data isn't that hard to gather. Uber has more robotics scientists than all the others combined.

agumonkey9y ago

Funny when it started as a GPS tracking webapp.

oh_sigh9y ago

Even google(with boston dynamics?)

danhak9y ago

Tesla's other advantage is a global fleet that is actively logging millions of real-world miles a day. I don't think that can be understated at this stage.

bryanlarsen9y ago

Google may have a lot fewer miles, but they're much higher quality miles. The sensor suite on their car is much superior, so they're getting much better data. Even if the eventual Google car uses cheaper sensors, the data they get from the superior sensors helps a lot training the algorithms.

pm909y ago

I don't see how this will work though. Unless you plan to equip all those future cars with the same high quality sensors as those on the Google ones (which I've heard are prohibitively expensive).

If those sensors eventually do become really cheap, then Tesla could use them too and negate any advantages Google might have had.

2 more replies

oh_sigh9y ago

Does google collect high velocity data like tesla's? I heard that the google self driving car was limited to 25mph in the areas where they tested it, and so their data may only be reflective of that.

1 more reply

ams61109y ago

As owner of a Tesla is it possible to opt-out of this logging? Or is it a required condition of buying the car?

jasonkolb9y ago

Google has Waze data. Which I would think serves as a GREAT set of labels for the data that the self driving cars collect.

oh_sigh9y ago

Waze is just where people are going...the data tesla collects could be from sensors like a front-facing camera, radar, 360 degree ultrasonic sensors, etc.

Zaheer9y ago

A Google <-> Uber partnership could reveal something similar.

JeffL9y ago

But with Tesla's open policies, such as open sourcing all their patents, maybe they will happily supply Uber with all the self driving cars Uber might want, plus the API's to remotely control them?

pm909y ago

I'm sure they would be more than willing to supply Uber with cars but how much access/control they give to Uber of the data from the cars remains to be seen.

puranjay9y ago

If Tesla can pull off this transportation + energy revolution, it would be a trillion dollar company

aerovistae9y ago

Exactly my thinking.

mulcahey9y ago

I also think that Tesla will have an easier time acquiring top talent in both the autonomy software and manufacturing. Uber/Google have to partner with Old Guard automotive companies.

AceJohnny29y ago

Not necessarily. A lot of people have wisened up to Musk's invasive and destructive management style. Don't think the frequent departures from the company at all levels of hierarchy have gone unnoticed.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

sudoscript9y ago

Also millions of miles of fleet learning a day, which Uber doesn't have, since they don't own the cars. Self-driving cars is a supervised learning problem, and he who has the data wins

argonaut9y ago

tansey9y ago

Except that is exactly what Nvidia did, and it worked out fine for them: https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07316

1 more reply

lallysingh9y ago

There's also the matter of that laser scanner on some cars - usually costing more than the car...

nl9y ago

Not anymore.

Complete LIDAR units are already available for under $500[1]. There are other, cheaper sensors which aren't as good as full LIDAR but are available for under $100[2].

There are plenty of other options hitting the market soon too[3]

[1] http://www.teraranger.com/products/teraranger-lidar/

[2] https://www.pulsedlight3d.com/

[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2015/12/0...

1 more reply

dpc599y ago

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-george-hotz-self-driv...

people are trying to fix this problem too

intrasight9y ago

Data isn't that hard to gather. Uber has more robotics scientists than all the others combined.

agumonkey9y ago

Funny when it started as a GPS tracking webapp.

oh_sigh9y ago

Even google(with boston dynamics?)

danhak9y ago

Tesla's other advantage is a global fleet that is actively logging millions of real-world miles a day. I don't think that can be understated at this stage.

bryanlarsen9y ago

pm909y ago

I don't see how this will work though. Unless you plan to equip all those future cars with the same high quality sensors as those on the Google ones (which I've heard are prohibitively expensive).

If those sensors eventually do become really cheap, then Tesla could use them too and negate any advantages Google might have had.

2 more replies

oh_sigh9y ago

Does google collect high velocity data like tesla's? I heard that the google self driving car was limited to 25mph in the areas where they tested it, and so their data may only be reflective of that.

1 more reply

ams61109y ago

As owner of a Tesla is it possible to opt-out of this logging? Or is it a required condition of buying the car?

jasonkolb9y ago

Google has Waze data. Which I would think serves as a GREAT set of labels for the data that the self driving cars collect.

oh_sigh9y ago

Waze is just where people are going...the data tesla collects could be from sensors like a front-facing camera, radar, 360 degree ultrasonic sensors, etc.

Zaheer9y ago

A Google <-> Uber partnership could reveal something similar.

JeffL9y ago

But with Tesla's open policies, such as open sourcing all their patents, maybe they will happily supply Uber with all the self driving cars Uber might want, plus the API's to remotely control them?

pm909y ago

I'm sure they would be more than willing to supply Uber with cars but how much access/control they give to Uber of the data from the cars remains to be seen.

puranjay9y ago

If Tesla can pull off this transportation + energy revolution, it would be a trillion dollar company

aerovistae9y ago

Exactly my thinking.

mulcahey9y ago

I also think that Tesla will have an easier time acquiring top talent in both the autonomy software and manufacturing. Uber/Google have to partner with Old Guard automotive companies.

AceJohnny29y ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse