Everyone knows that this has to end -- not just in doom media but everywhere -- but all smart traders know that being early is the exact same thing as being wrong.

You cannot time whats coming, and unless you're running money for somebody else, you don't have to. The only thing you can do is diversify. I know that this is standard advice and it's not nearly as sexy as betting on The Big One, but having a healthily diversified portfolio is literally the only way to stay sane.

If you just have to buy catastrophe insurance, then treat it like what it is: a small hedge against a long tail eventuality. That means don't bet your lifestyle on it.

For me, the most powerful lesson from the GFC is that /everyone/, without exception, is net long The System, and when you bet against The System you bet against the combined best efforts of the most advanced civilization that this planet has ever produced. That is stupid, so don't do it.