Sorry for the barb, but that meme (your house as an investment) really bothers me, because it has the potential to do a lot of damage. It's like penny stocks. Sure you can make money if you really know what you're doing or get lucky, but by and large the idea that it's a good investment originates with people who've a financial interest in convincing you to buy some.
Pretty shortsighted view there, and demonstrably wrong. Historically housing prices have always risen faster than the rate of inflation - both in 'popular'neighborhoods and elsewhere. Take almost any 10 year period of time and you'd be very very hard pressed to find a region where housing prices didn't dramatically outpace inflation.
I don't buy a house expecting to use it 10+ years and still make a buck selling it afterwards. The same way I don't buy a car and expect it to yield me money when it's a broken beater, in fact, the simple fact of buying it immediately devalues it (to others).
(I guess this is because (1) the market and tax situation in the US are broken and (2) it causes the land to be vastly more valuable than whatever is standing on top of it)
And be careful what you wish for, because once you do own that house, if the prices continue to fall, you could be underwater fairly easily. If a $1m place falls to $750k, which you can afford, but then the economy continues to stutter, it could fall to $500k or $350k. Remember that your mortgage doesn't reflect what you could sell your house for, once you sign the papers, you're on the hook for it.
I really question what those economic factors are though. For SF it's clearly the availability of high paying jobs. However in Portland, OR (where I live) there are little to no high paying tech jobs available, and yet the housing prices are sky rocketing to levels never seen before.
Given my basic understanding of economics the current climate makes absolutely no sense. Wages have been stagnate for years, college grads have no career outlook (outstanding student debt is now $1.2 trillion), and prices for everything (except for oil) are higher than ever. I've seen friends empty their bank accounts just to pay rent. The concept of savings or retirement for millennial might as well not even exist.
Probably not a popular view, but I think there's some truth to it. Check out the Harvard JCHS article [1], more households are paying 30, 40, and even 50% of their salaries for rent than ever before.
Major shifts like this can only be explained by culture, IMO. Maybe the US is undergoing a major shift toward wanting to live in city centers, even at the cost of saving for the future? Or people in certain metros just think they're that exceptional / special / etc. that they "deserve" to live in a certain place? Or everyone in a high-ambition career think they don't need to save because they'll "make it" (maybe true?) and will have fuck-you money in a few years?
It's a big change from the past, that's for sure.
[1] http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/projecting...
Not to mention a lot of consumers view home ownership as the single largest investment they make, so they are sitting on their retirement.
