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0 pointslogfromblammo10y ago0 comments

No. Don't do that. Sharing a jackpot is still better than not winning. Your EV would drop more by abandoning that part of the probability space than it would drop by the possibility of splitting the pot.

The only valid reason not to use the lottery computer's random picks would be mistrusting its random number generator.

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5 comments · 3 top-level

nimos10y ago· 2 in thread

Your EV would increase if you removed numbers that are picked more often.

Your chance of winning is still the same but the expected payout is higher because the expected number of identical tickets is lower.

logfromblammoOP10y ago

Your chance of winning is not the same if you never pick a number that could be drawn with the winning combination.

If you never pick 7, the winning combination could still have a seven in it. By never picking seven, you are voluntarily abandoning 1/69 of the white balls and 1/26 of the red balls. There are (68 C 4) x 25 + (69 C 5) such combinations out of the (69 C 5) x 26 possible combinations, or 31598138 out of 292201338. You lower your chances of winning in the first place to 89% of normal by avoiding just one number.

tzs10y ago

What you've actually shown is that someone who bought all possible tickets that do not contain 7 has less chances of winning than someone who bought one each of all possible combinations that do not contain 7 has less chance of winning that someone who bought one each of all possible combinations.

For someone buying a single ticket excluding 7 has no effect at all on their chances that their ticket will win.

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wongarsu10y ago

How does a bad random number generator or a smaller probability space change the EV?

The numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 are just as likely to be the winning numbers as the output of a perfect random number generator. The only remaining variable in the EV is the liklyhood of sharing the winning numbers, and that probability can be reduced by decreasing the probability space in smart ways.

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digler99910y ago

> abandoning that part of the probability space

this is hogwash. ALL numbers are equally likely to come up.

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