If OEMs or Telcos would loose the legal right to ship phones with Android if the updates weren't provided within a specific SLA, then they surely would comply.

As an example how to put telcos in line, in the early days that mobiles started shipping with wlan support, Vodafone tried to sell N95 with wlan and VoIP support disabled on their firmware. Eventually they had to provide a full working N95, if I remember correctly.

I doubt that nowadays they would go back to develop their own OSes.